The next big move in the price of oil will be up. For now, OPEC producers are flooding the market with cheap crude. But low-cost OPEC producers will win the hydrocarbon price war because they can fight harder for longer. And when they win, the price of oil will rise.
Brent crude has fallen about 40 percent over the last year to less than $40 a barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has sought to defend its market share by pumping record volumes of oil and driving profit out of higher-cost production. Shale oil drillers in America and offshore operators in areas such as the UK’s North Sea are among the most vulnerable. Improving wellhead efficiency has softened the blows thus far. But these gains will be harder to repeat in 2016.
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